M&A Market Germany 2027: What Studies and Forecasts Show for Sellers

As of today (07.10.2026) there is no published, reliably citable forecast of the number of M&A deals in Germany for 2027. The available studies describe an active but selective market: deal numbers rose clearly in the first half of 2026, while higher interest rates and a weak economy worsen the conditions. This page summarises named, dated sources and keeps them apart from the own assessment of IGCP Capital Partners. It is not advice and not a recommendation to sell at any particular time.

Anyone thinking about selling a company does not need a forecast but an honest starting point: figures for 2027 exist as model calculations and sentiment, not as certainty. How a sale proceeds step by step is described under Sell your company; which decisions you as the owner have to take yourself is organised in the practical guide to selling a company.

How will the M&A market in Germany develop in 2027?

We did not find a published forecast of the number of deals in Germany for 2027 (as of 07.10.2026); what is documented are half-year figures for 2026, model calculations to 2028 and sentiment indicators. The time horizons of the sources mostly end earlier: the Oaklins Germany market report looks at the full year 2026, Roland Berger at the rest of 2026, the model by KPMG and Oxford Economics runs to 2028. Any figure for 2027 would therefore be an extrapolation. That is acceptable as long as it is labelled as an own assumption.

Source	As of	Period	Key statement
Oaklins Germany, M&A market report H1 2026	23.07.2026	H1 2026 (to 24.06.), expectation full year	1,490 transactions with German involvement, +15.0% versus H1 2025 (1,296); inbound 536 (+38.5%); Oaklins expects more transactions in 2026 than in 2025
KPMG, M&A Outlook 2026	08.12.2025	2026, model to 2028	Survey of 200 decision makers: 42% expect more M&A activity in 2026; model with Oxford Economics: 2,853 deals to 2028 (+45% versus 2025), volume USD 131.8 bn (+15%)
Roland Berger, Private equity DACH, State of the region H1 2026	July 2026	H1 2026	204 PE transactions in DACH, −15% versus H1 2025; the rest of 2026 is seen as "challenging" at the aggregate level
KfW Research / BVK, German Private Equity Barometer Q2 2026	30.07.2026	Sentiment in Q2 2026	Business climate −32.2 (−17.4 points versus Q1); willingness to invest +23.3
KPMG, Pulse of Private Equity Q2'26	20.08.2026	H1 2026, outlook H2	Germany: USD 88.6 bn PE investment volume (rolling twelve months); exit market remains selective

Sources: see list of sources at the end, all retrieved on 07.10.2026. The figures are not comparable with one another: region, counting method and period differ.

How to read the table: Oaklins counts published transactions with German involvement in which at least 20% of the shares change hands (data basis Mergermarket, Majunke and S&P Capital IQ). Roland Berger looks exclusively at private equity transactions in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. The KPMG survey reflects expectations, not results. The KPMG model was built in December 2025, that is before the ECB rate increases of 2026.

Which framework data apply for 2027?

The joint economic forecast of the research institutes of 24.09.2026 expects for Germany in 2027 economic growth of 1.1%, inflation of 3.2% and an unemployment rate of 6.2%. For 2028 the expected growth falls to 0.4%.

Indicator	2026	2027	2028
Gross domestic product, change	+1.3%	+1.1%	+0.4%
Inflation rate	2.8%	3.2%	2.0%
Unemployment rate	6.4%	6.2%	5.8%

Source: Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2026 (joint economic forecast), published 24.09.2026, retrieved 07.10.2026. Forecasts by the institutes, not actual values.

For buyers and sellers, financing matters most. The ECB most recently raised the deposit facility rate to 2.50% (effective 16.09.2026; before that 2.25% since 17.06.2026 and 2.00% since 11.06.2025). The institutes of the joint forecast expect a further increase to 2.75% in December 2026; for the end of 2027 they assume a deposit rate of around 2.8%. In their assessment private investment also remains weak in 2027, and financing conditions have "deteriorated somewhat". The government deficit rises from 4.1% (2026) to 4.7% (2028).

What argues for more, what for less activity?

Continued activity is supported by available capital, foreign buyers and a large number of owners willing to hand over; rising interest rates, weak investment and geopolitical risks argue against it. The sources name in detail:

Rather supportive

• Return of cross-border buyers. According to Oaklins, inbound transactions rose by 38.5% to 536 in the first half of 2026; their share was 36.0% of all transactions.
• Available capital. Roland Berger puts the uninvested capital of private equity funds in DACH at more than EUR 30 bn at the end of 2025. In the KfW/BVK barometer willingness to invest is at +23.3, just below its record.
• Wave of handovers. According to KfW Research, around 545,000 SMEs plan a handover by the end of 2029, about 109,000 per year. For the coming ten years KPMG names around 260 to 295 larger companies (EBITDA of EUR 10 m or more) that could consider an external succession solution.
• New triggers. Oaklins points to AI infrastructure, defence and distressed M&A; in 2025 there were around 24,000 corporate insolvencies.

Rather dampening

• Interest rates and financing. The KfW/BVK barometer rates financing conditions at −44.2 and the interest climate at −38.2. Oaklins considers the change in direction of interest rates more important than the absolute level: financing of acquisitions by financial investors deteriorates and raises valuation discipline.
• Economy. Expected growth of 1.1% in 2027 and 0.4% in 2028 is low; private investment remains weak.
• Geopolitics and energy prices. In the KPMG survey 74% of companies name geopolitical risks as a brake; Oaklins also cites the Iran conflict and elevated energy prices.
• Private equity in DACH. The number of PE transactions fell to 204 (−15%) in the first half of 2026.

One finding qualifies the optimism of the half-year figure: at Oaklins, transaction growth was +20.9% in the first quarter but only +7.8% in the second. Oaklins itself calls the first half "not a turning point but a phase of selective activity": qualitatively strong companies remained tradable, while cyclical, energy-intensive or export-dependent business models were assessed more critically.

What does this mean for sellers?

The sources give no signal for the right calendar day but a quality signal: predictable, well-documented companies remain tradable, while buyers look more closely at weaker business models. Three points are practical for owners.

Asking price and market price often diverge. According to the DIHK Report Unternehmensnachfolge 2025, 36% of advised owners demand an inflated price. KfW Research puts the average asking price of owners willing to hand over at EUR 499,000 (median EUR 375,000); these are asking prices, not achieved purchase prices. EBITDA multiples by industry give an orientation by industry and size class, the company valuation calculator a first indication for your company. A robust analysis is provided by a company valuation.

The ratio of supply to demand depends on the definition. The figures on the succession wave come from surveys and estimates with different delimitations. They cannot be added up or netted against each other:

Source	As of	Statement	Delimitation
KfW Research, Fokus No. 526	09.01.2026	Around 545,000 of 3.87 m SMEs plan a handover by the end of 2029 (about 109,000 per year); one in four owners plans closure (about 114,000 per year)	Survey of owners, extrapolation
IfM Bonn, Daten und Fakten No. 37	November 2025	Around 186,000 companies are due for handover in 2026 to 2030, about 4,000 fewer than in the previous period	Estimate based on the age structure of owners
DIHK Report Unternehmensnachfolge 2025	Survey 22.01.–28.02.2025	Almost 10,000 owners willing to hand over in IHK advice in 2024, a good 4,000 people interested in taking over; 5,620 companies without a potential successor	Cases in IHK advice, not the overall market
KPMG, Pulse of Private Equity Q2'26	20.08.2026	Around 260 to 295 larger companies (EBITDA of EUR 10 m or more) could consider an external succession in ten years	Model calculation, larger companies only

Sources: see list of sources, retrieved on 07.10.2026. How the succession figures are composed in detail is shown in Succession in Germany: figures and statistics.

The type of buyer changes price and process. According to Oaklins, financial investors had a market share of 35% with 522 transactions in the first half of 2026; the remaining transactions were by strategic buyers. How the two groups of buyers differ is explained in Strategic buyer or financial investor? and Financial investor.

Where are the limits of these figures?

All figures on this page are retrospective, expectations or models, not predictions for an individual company. You should be aware of four limitations:

• Published transactions only. A count such as the one by Oaklins covers by definition only publicly reported deals. Confidential transactions, which are common among SMEs, are missing.
• A survey is not a result. If 42% of respondents expect more activity, that says nothing about the actual number.
• Models have a cut-off date. The KPMG model does not yet know the 2026 rate increases.
• Deal numbers are not price levels. None of the sources named says which prices sellers will achieve in 2027.

Our assessment (own assessment, not a forecast)

In our own assessment, a company's chance of being sold in 2027 depends less on market sentiment than on financeability, predictability and preparation in the individual case. This is an assessment by IGCP Capital Partners based on the sources above, not a forecast, and we deliberately name no figure for 2027 because no source supports one.

• Higher interest rates make acquisitions more expensive. That argues for putting figures, contracts and dependence on the owner in order early, before a buyer asks.
• Waiting for "the best moment of the market" is not very reliable. The timing of your own company, by contrast, can be shaped.
• If you are dealing with succession anyway, you will find routes and the legal framework on the page Business succession Germany.

A decision to sell belongs in consultation with your tax adviser and lawyer; this page is orientation, not legal, tax or investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

Is there a forecast for the M&A market in Germany in 2027?

According to our research (as of 07.10.2026) there is no published forecast of deal numbers for 2027. What is documented are figures for the first half of 2026 (Oaklins: 1,490 transactions, +15.0%), a model by KPMG and Oxford Economics to 2028 and the economic forecast of the joint economic forecast (growth 2027: 1.1%).

How many M&A transactions were there in Germany in the first half of 2026?

Oaklins Germany counts 1,490 transactions with German involvement, 15.0% more than in the first half of 2025 (1,296). Published transactions in which at least 20% of the shares change hands are counted.

How do higher interest rates affect company sales?

According to Oaklins, the financing of acquisitions deteriorates and raises buyers' valuation discipline. The KfW/BVK barometer rates financing conditions in the second quarter of 2026 at −44.2. How strongly this affects the price in an individual case cannot be derived from these data.

Is now a good time to sell my company?

There is no general answer. The sources show an active but selective market. What matters are your personal goals, the condition of your company and clean preparation. Discuss timing and structure with your tax adviser and an independent M&A adviser.

Are small and medium-sized companies included in these statistics?

Only insofar as the transactions were published. Market reports such as the one by Oaklins do not capture confidential SME transactions. For SME successions, KfW, IfM Bonn and DIHK are the better sources.

How do I find out what my company is worth?

The company valuation calculator gives a first indication. A robust valuation needs adjusted figures and an analysis of the value drivers, as provided by a company valuation. Market data give a corridor, not a price.

---

Sources, retrieved on 07.10.2026: Oaklins Germany, M&A-Marktbericht H1 2026 (oaklins.com, 23.07.2026); KPMG, M&A Outlook 2026, press release of 08.12.2025 (kpmg.com/de); Roland Berger, Private equity DACH – State of the region H1 2026 (rolandberger.com, July 2026); KfW Research / BVK, German Private Equity Barometer Q2 2026 (kfw.de, 30.07.2026); KPMG, Pulse of Private Equity Q2'26, press release of 20.08.2026 (kpmg.com/de); Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2026 (gemeinschaftsdiagnose.de, 24.09.2026); European Central Bank, key interest rates (ecb.europa.eu); KfW Research, Nachfolge-Monitoring Mittelstand 2025 (kfw.de, Fokus Volkswirtschaft No. 526, 09.01.2026); IfM Bonn, Unternehmensnachfolgen in Deutschland 2026 bis 2030 (ifm-bonn.org, Daten und Fakten No. 37, November 2025); DIHK, Report Unternehmensnachfolge 2025 (dihk.de). Orientation, not legal, tax or investment advice.

A company sale is the most important transaction of an entrepreneur's life. Let yourself be accompanied independently and discreetly — IGCP Capital Partners. → igcp.at